After a week of booth talks and hallway chats at Intermodal Europe 2025, we’ve distilled the key takeaways. This summary captures the market signals shaping 2026.
Industry sentiment for 2026 is cautious. Structural overcapacity is colliding with geopolitical and tariff uncertainty, while Red Sea rerouting and terminal congestion have masked the underlying glut. Expect second-hand prices to trend lower as liners and lessors offload equipment, while newbuild pricing holds firmer where carriers prioritise their own assets and deliveries of newbuilts are more difficult/expensive. NVOCCs in the Middle East–India–Southeast Asia corridor are showing pressure, with lengthening payment terms and rising counterparty risk.
From conversations on the Intermodal Europe floor, several themes stood out:
- Capacity distortion: Roughly 10–15% of vessel/container capacity is tied up by Red Sea detours and terminal congestion—capacity effectively “removed” while ships and boxes wait.
- Infrastructure lag: Ports and terminals have not meaningfully improved efficiency versus 10–15 years ago, yet must process more volume—fueling congestion that also ties up capacity right now.
- Second-hand glut ahead: Lines and lessors signalled sizeable disposals (commonly 100k–150k TEU p.a.; with larger programmes discussed in the 270k–300k TEU p.a. range).
- Newbuild paradox: An estimated 1.2–1.8m TEU of newbuilds sit in Chinese factory yards, but carriers will deploy their own boxes first—constraining third-party access in end-user markets.
- Price divergence: Used boxes down; newbuilds stable to rising, especially into U.S. demand centres where carrier-owned equipment is prioritised.
- NVOCC pressure zone: Working-capital strain and elongated payment terms in ME–India–SE Asia lanes.
The macro backdrop: supply still outpaces demand
The orderbook remains historically elevated. Seatrade Maritime places the container-ship orderbook at ~31.7% of the fleet (highest since 2010), with deliveries still landing into late 2025. Seatrade Maritime News
Port performance data underline how easily shocks turn into friction. The World Bank’s CPPI 2025 press release reports a decline in global port performance between 2020–2024, attributing it to Red Sea disruptions, Panama Canal constraints and pandemic-era ripple effects—evidence infrastructure and processes haven’t kept pace with throughput. World Bank
Tariffs remain the wild card for U.S. flows. September updates (NRF/Descartes via The Maritime Executive) flag projected declines through late-2025 into 2026 as policy uncertainty weighs on orders. Maritime Executive
Net effect: with fleet growth ahead of end-demand and policy risk whipsawing import timing, used supply looks ample heading into 2026.
Red Sea detours and congestion: the “hidden” capacity
Even into Q4 2025, carriers signal no quick return to the Suez routing. Lloyd’s List’s Red Sea Risk coverage shows a continued cautious stance from lines and no decisive recovery in transits. Lloyd’s List
Quantitatively, BIMCO estimates 10–12% of fleet capacity has been absorbed by Cape of Good Hope diversions—material “hidden” capacity that props up rates short-term but can unwind quickly. Container News
The implication for planning is straightforward: detour-inflated tightness can vanish quickly if routings normalise and terminal queues clear.
Prices: used down, newbuilds stickier
Market commentary early this year flagged softening in China for used 40HC units; FreightWaves highlighted month-on-month price declines and the risk of further easing if Suez normalises. freightwaves.com
Layer on the demand side: U.S. import forecasts turned lower after mid-year front-loading to beat tariffs (NRF/Descartes via The Maritime Executive), while freight and analyst updates through the autumn have pointed to easing spot levels as tariff overhang meets capacity additions. Maritime Executive
Bottom line on pricing dynamics: as disposal programmes build, second-hand values are likely to remain under pressure, whereas newbuild pricing can stay relatively sticky where carriers prioritise their own fleets—especially into U.S. demand centres.
Credit-stress watch: NVOCCs and emerging-market lanes
Intermodal floor intel pointed to rising strain among NVOs serving ME–India–SE Asia—longer payment terms and early signs of financial difficulty in 2H-2025.
Broader evidence lines up: Coface’s Asia Payment Survey 2025 finds a record share of firms reporting ultra-long payment delays (ULPDs) and a worsening outlook across multiple APAC markets—consistent with tighter liquidity conditions along these corridors. Coface+1
Bottom line
2026 is shaping up as a year where supply physics dominate: a large orderbook meets tariff and geopolitical uncertainty, while today’s detours and congestion camouflage a deeper surplus. If operational frictions ease, that surplus can reappear quickly—pushing down used values even as newbuild pricing stays relatively stickier where carriers prioritise their own fleets. Across the chain—equipment owners and lessors, NVOCCs, forwarders and suppliers—the resilient posture is pragmatic: recognise the two-track price dynamic, monitor corridor-specific credit risk, and plan for scenarios where effective capacity returns faster than demand. Seatrade Maritime News+1
Five actions to consider
- Scenario-plan for routing normalisation: model cash-flow and pricing if the 10–12% detour effect fades within a quarter. Container News
- Track the orderbook and deliveries: watch for additional capacity hitting key trades versus your demand outlook. Seatrade Maritime News
- Separate used vs. newbuild strategies: time purchases into disposal waves; treat newbuild sourcing as lane-specific where carrier allocation matters.
- Tighten credit where needed: in ME–India–SE Asia lanes, shorten terms, raise deposits selectively, and monitor DSO/ULPD signals. Coface
- Watch U.S. tariff headlines: align inventory and sales pacing to updated NRF/Descartes projections and live container market prices. Maritime Executive
Sources
- Intermodal Europe 2025 — floor conversations with our team, Oct 2025.
- Seatrade Maritime, “Container shipping faces a decade of overcapacity,” 19 Aug 2025 (orderbook ~31.7% of fleet). Seatrade Maritime News
- World Bank, CPPI 2025 press release, 22 Sept 2025 (global port performance declined 2020–2024 due to Red Sea/Panama/pandemic shocks). World Bank
- Lloyd’s List, Red Sea Risk page incl. “No sign of Red Sea return despite ceasefire,” Oct 2025 (continued caution on Red Sea transits). Lloyd’s List
- Container News/BIMCO, “Container rates plunge 28%: Worst first quarter in two decades,” Apr 2025 (Cape diversions absorb 10–12% of fleet capacity). Container News
- The Maritime Executive (NRF/Descartes), “U.S. Container Imports Are Projected to Decline for the Remainder of 2025,” 9 Sept 2025. Maritime Executive
- FreightWaves, “Will container purchase prices continue their climb?” Jan 2025 (used 40HC softening in China). freightwaves.com
- Coface, Asia Payment Survey 2025 (press release and results), 11 Jun 2025 (ULPDs at record share; outlook worsens). Coface