Quick view (Q3 so far):
- U.S. imports: July jumped to 2.62m TEU (+18.2% vs. June) on tariff front-loading; August eased to ~2.5m TEU (+1.6% YoY) as the pull-forward faded. Descartes
- Spot rates: Drewry WCI fell to $2,044/FEU (Sep 11), the 13th straight weekly decline overall—Transpacific lanes firmed while Asia–Europe softened. Drewry
- Reliability: Schedule reliability improved to 67.4% in June, then slipped to ~65% in July, still well above last year. sea-intelligence.com
- Back-half outlook: NRF/ Hackett now expect 2025 imports −5.6% vs. 2024; McCown interprets this as a ~17.5% drop for Aug–Dec after the summer spike. National Retail Federation
What’s driving Q3
- Tariffs & pull-forward dynamics
Retailers accelerated cargo in July ahead of shifting/renewed tariffs, then moderated in August. Sourcing continues to diversify away from China into Vietnam, India, Thailand, Indonesia—useful context for lane planning and equipment flows. Reuters - Prices vs. lanes
Composite spot rates trended down into September, but Transpacific held firmer than Asia–Europe—an important nuance for SOC vs. COC decisions and one-way pricing into North America. Drewry - Operations
After steady gains through H1, reliability dipped in July—but remains ~13 pp higher YoY, enabling tighter buffers where you had added slack last year. WorldCargo News
North America & Canada notes
- U.S. gateways: The mid-summer import surge concentrated at the big nodes; watch for localized equipment surpluses as pull-forward unwinds into late Q3. Reuters
- Canada west coast: Prince Rupert shows stronger mid-year cargo momentum (Fairview Terminal July 790k tonnes; YTD up vs. 2024). Vancouver August dashboard prints underscore robust import bias (e.g., ~136k TEU imports vs. ~59k TEU exports). rupertport.com
- Canada east: Montreal mid-year update: total volumes slightly down vs. 2024 but containers up ~4%—resilience and mix shift matter for inland routings. Maritime Magazine
What this means for equipment (our view)
- Used containers (NA): Expect higher availability as liners and lessors off-hire & dispose more units into the secondary market. With demand normalizing post pull-forward, this tilts pricing power to buyers—especially at U.S./Canada import-heavy hubs. (Synthesis based on Q3 volume pattern + rate and forecast signals above.) Reuters
- New builds (into the U.S.): Carriers are prioritizing own fleets over SOC one-ways; with Transpacific slots tighter for one-way newbuilds, inflows drop and prices for new units stay relatively firm despite softer cargo totals. (Supported by lane-specific WCI behavior & NRF back-half forecasts.) Drewry
Playbook for freight forwarders (Q3 actions)
- Exploit surpluses, monetize deficits
Buy used equipment in surplus locations (U.S. gateways, Vancouver/Prince Rupert) and reposition to Asian deficit nodes when one-way economics pencil out. - Be selective with one-way newbuilds into the U.S.
Benchmark SOC one-way quotes against COC alternatives on Transpacific; lane divergence matters as Asia–Europe weakens while Transpacific is steadier. Drewry - Right-size commitments for a softer Q4
With NRF/Hackett projecting a −5.6% full-year drop and McCown flagging a ~17.5% Aug–Dec contraction, stagger purchases and prefer shorter tenors. National Retail Federation - Tighten buffers on reliable strings
July’s small dip aside, reliability remains structurally better than 2024—trim dwell/time buffers where SLA risk is low. WorldCargo News
