Q3 2025 container market: what freight forwarders should do now

Quick view (Q3 so far):

• U.S. imports: July jumped to 2.62m TEU (+18.2% vs. June) on tariff front-loading; August eased to ~2.5m TEU (+1.6% YoY) as the pull-forward faded. Learn more 
• Spot rates: Drewry WCI fell to $2,044/FEU (Sep 11), the 13th straight weekly decline overall—Transpacific lanes firmed while Asia–Europe softened. Learn more 
• Reliability: Schedule reliability improved to 67.4% in June, then slipped to ~65% in July, still well above last year. Learn more 
• Back-half outlook: NRF/ Hackett now expect 2025 imports −5.6% vs. 2024; McCown interprets this as a ~17.5% drop for Aug–Dec after the summer spike. Learn more 

What’s driving Q3

1. Tariffs & pull-forward dynamicsRetailers accelerated cargo in July ahead of shifting/renewed tariffs, then moderated in August. Sourcing continues to diversify away from China into Vietnam, India, Thailand, Indonesia—useful context for lane planning and equipment flows. Learn more 
2. Prices vs. lanesComposite spot rates trended down into September, but Transpacific held firmer than Asia–Europe—an important nuance for SOC vs. COC decisions and one-way pricing into North America. Learn more 
3. OperationsAfter steady gains through H1, reliability dipped in July—but remains ~13 pp higher YoY, enabling tighter buffers where you had added slack last year. Learn more 

North America & Canada notes

• U.S. gateways: The mid-summer import surge concentrated at the big nodes; watch for localized equipment surpluses as pull-forward unwinds into late Q3. Learn more 
• Canada west coast: Prince Rupert shows stronger mid-year cargo momentum (Fairview Terminal July 790k tonnes; YTD up vs. 2024). Vancouver August dashboard prints underscore robust import bias (e.g., ~136k TEU imports vs. ~59k TEU exports). Learn more 
• Canada east: Montreal mid-year update: total volumes slightly down vs. 2024 but containers up ~4%—resilience and mix shift matter for inland routings. Learn more 

What this means for equipment (our view)

• Used containers (NA): Expect higher availability as liners and lessors off-hire & dispose more units into the secondary market. With demand normalizing post pull-forward, this tilts pricing power to buyers—especially at U.S./Canada import-heavy hubs. (Synthesis based on Q3 volume pattern + rate and forecast signals above.) Learn more 
• New builds (into the U.S.): Carriers are prioritizing own fleets over SOC one-ways; with Transpacific slots tighter for one-way newbuilds, inflows drop and prices for new units stay relatively firm despite softer cargo totals. (Supported by lane-specific WCI behavior & NRF back-half forecasts.) Learn more 

Playbook for freight forwarders (Q3 actions)

1. Exploit surpluses, monetize deficitsBuy used equipment in surplus locations (U.S. gateways, Vancouver/Prince Rupert) and reposition to Asian deficit nodes when one-way economics pencil out. 
2. **Be selective with one-way newbuilds into the U.S.**Benchmark SOC one-way quotes against COC alternatives on Transpacific; lane divergence matters as Asia–Europe weakens while Transpacific is steadier. Learn more 
3. Right-size commitments for a softer Q4With NRF/Hackett projecting a −5.6% full-year drop and McCown flagging a ~17.5% Aug–Dec contraction, stagger purchases and prefer shorter tenors. Learn more 
4. Tighten buffers on reliable stringsJuly’s small dip aside, reliability remains structurally better than 2024—trim dwell/time buffers where SLA risk is low. Learn more